This Saturday’s election shall be in contrast to the 2014 contest. This time, 4 main events are making efforts to have vital presence in the oblong battle.
Ismail Omipidan, Bamigbola Gbolagunte and Clement Adeyi, Osogbo
In 2014, the Osun State governorship contest was a straight struggle between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition, Peoples Democratic Get together (PDP).
However this Saturday’s election might be in contrast to the 2014 contest when the race was narrowed to only two widespread political events. This time, 4 main events are making efforts to have vital presence in the oblong battle.
READ ALSO: Osun Guber: SDP, ADP, ADC merger talks collapse
Though, there are 48 political events listed by the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) as collaborating in the election, political pundits are nevertheless of the view that the competition will probably be a fierce one between 4 main political events. The events are: Social Democratic Celebration (SDP), APC, PDP and Motion Democratic Celebration (ADP).
Apparently, three of the 4 main political events are bent on making certain that APC doesn’t win the state. However there isn’t any clear working alliance amongst them towards the APC. This, Saturday Solar gathered, might have an effect on their efficiency on the ballot. Saturday Solar can authoritatively reveal that a working alliance amongst any two of the three political events against the APC would have made their victory towards APC seamless.
There are 30 councils in the state, with the three senatorial districts sharing them equally, that’s 10 every. Traditionally, earlier than the 2014 contest, the profitable votes come from Ife. However in 2014, Osogbo gave about 70,000 votes to the APC. And in the top, APC gained the governorship with somewhat over 100, 000 votes.
However because the candidate of the ADP, a former Secretary to the State Authorities (SSG), Moshood Adeoti, is not in the APC, even when APC would win Osogbo this Saturday, it’s going to definitely not be with the identical margin with which it gained it in 2014.
How the events stand in the councils
Ede – There are two councils there, Ede South and Ede North. The identify Adeleke is sort of a faith in the world with giant followership. Though, the previous Speaker of Osun State Home of Meeting, Adejare Bello, who can also be from Ede and a political protégée of late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, has defected to the APC, he isn’t more likely to trigger any upset. However his affect will solely scale back the margin with which the PDP will win the world.
Egbedore – This space is seen largely as a part of Ede. Subsequently, no matter occurs in Ede, may have impact in the world. Chief Layi Ogunrinade can also be from the world. He’s the pioneer chairman of the PDP in the state.
Ayadire – That is one other council in the Osun-West senatorial district. Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, who contested the PDP’s ticket with Senator Ademola Adeleke, who ultimately emerged the candidate, is from the world. Following the truce reached between him and Adeleke, he has since deployed males and assets to make sure victory for the get together, as he has additionally been promised the senatorial ticket in return. Apart from, the council is a standard PDP enclave, even earlier than Ogunbiyi occurred on the political scene.
Obokun is a council in Osun East senatorial district, the place the outgoing governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola hails from. However the space is considered one of PDP’s strongholds due to the affect of the incumbent member of the Home of Representatives from the world, Wole Oke and one other retired Customs officer, who has been eyeing the senate from the zone.
Boripe is a council in Osun Central senatorial district. It’s the fast council of the APC’s candidate, Gboyega Oyetola.
Osogbo is the state capital. Like Ede, it additionally has two councils –Osogbo and Olorunda. Though the PDP candidate made some incursions, particularly among the many non-indigenes, the world stays APC’s stronghold. Any social gathering that win the world overwhelmingly might ultimately carry the day.
Ifelodun can also be in the central. APC stays in style there. Its victory in the world might nevertheless be slim.
Irepodun is the council the place incumbent Deputy Speaker of the Home of Representatives hails from. Though, he’s one those that continues to be very bitter over the result of the social gathering’s primaries, believed to have been manipulated in favour of the candidate, APC stays robust in the world.
Ejigbo is a council in the west senatorial district of the state. The outgoing speaker of the state Home of Meeting, Najeem Salaam hails from the world. However for the love his individuals have for him, they might have deserted the APC candidate due to the zoning sentiment, which favours Osun West. It was the one council APC gained over the past senatorial by-election that threw up Adeleke.
Ila can also be in the central senatorial district. Chief Bisi Akande hails from the world. Akande, former interim Nationwide chairman of the APC and former governor of the state seems uncomfortable with the choice of the social gathering to select its candidate from the central district.
Lengthy prior to now, he had granted interviews and made feedback that are likely to help ceding the place to the west. About two weeks in the past, on the social gathering’s rally in Osogbo, he got here near saying so in the general public earlier than the microphone was hurriedly taken away from him.
Hear what he stated “we are all tenants at the government house (referring to Aregbesola). I was once a tenant and I left, somebody is a tenant now and he is already preparing to leave for another person to get there. But it is not good for the outgoing tenant to destroy the house for the incoming one.”
In the meanwhile, the incumbent member representing the world in the state Home of Meeting, Clement Akanni, has defected to the PDP from the APC. He’s liked by the individuals. However the former member of the Home of Representatives from the world too, Ismaila Kolawole, has additionally defected to SDP. Subsequently, PDP and SDP will battle for votes in the world.
Orolu can also be in the central senatorial district. It’s one other APC’s stronghold.
Isokan is in the west senatorial district. SDP’s candidate’s operating mate is from the council. He’s Azeez Lawal. He’s in his late 30s and nicely beloved in the world.
Ife East, the place Modakeke individuals are in the bulk, has by no means been in the identical celebration with Ife. They have been in NPN, when Ife was in UPN, PDP, when Omisore and Ife was in AD, and when Ife turned PDP, they moved to ACN. They usually vote en bloc. Subsequently, SDP is unlikely to win the world, regardless that the candidate is from the world. However APC too might not win both.
Verdict: ADP or PDP
Ife Central is one other council in Osun East senatorial district. SDP seems good in the world.
Ife South – The daddy of the SDP governorship candidate is the normal ruler of one of many outstanding cities (Ifetedo) in this council.
Ife North is just not more likely to go the best way of the SDP. In 2014, even when Omisore, who’s seen as one among their very own, ran on the ticket of the PDP, he solely managed to defeat the APC’s candidate with nearly a thousand votes.
Verdict: Battle floor
Irewole is a council in the west senatorial district. The return of Peter Babalola (Peter Energy) from the APC to the PDP, makes it look good for the PDP. Apart from, Lere Oyewumi, who’s the DG of the Adeleke marketing campaign Organisation, can also be from the world. Oyewumi is a two time period council chairman of the world, former member of Home of Representatives and speedy previous commissioner, Nationwide Inhabitants Fee. He was additionally a former ALGON chairman in the state.
Atakumosa West is in Osun East senatorial district. Though Aregbesola is from the district, the council shouldn’t be positive for the APC as a result of former minister and former deputy governor of the state, Erelu Olusola Obada can also be from the council. She is bidding for the senatorial seat of the district; as such she can be prepared to do the whole lot to win the council.
Verdict: Battle floor
Atakumosa East, like west, can also be going to be a battle floor. This so as a result of Dr. Bayo Faforiji, who’s the state get together chairman of the SDP, is from the world. He was a two-term chairman of the council, former Schooling commissioner in the state and in addition former Works chairman in the state, and he an Oba-elect. However like SDP, PDP additionally has a robust presence in the world. Sanya Omirin, who’s at present serving in the Income Mobilisation and Fiscal Allocation Fee (RMFAC), is of the PDP. He was additionally a former council chairman of the world. He as soon as represented the world in the state Home of Meeting.
Verdict: Battle floor
Iwo is the council of the candidate of ADP, Moshood Adeoti. The council is in the west senatorial district. Till the final senatorial by-election when it misplaced to the PDP, APC has all the time gained the world. However this time, they’re anticipated to queue behind their very own.
Ilesa West is in Osun East senatorial district, the place Aregbesola hails from. Investigations nevertheless reveal that the individuals of the world love Adeoti greater than his personal Iwo individuals.
The main candidates at a look
Senator Iyiola Omisore
Omisore is the candidate of the SDP. He was former deputy governor. He was the primary Nigerian politician to win an election from the jail. His ambition to control the state is as previous because the historical past of the state. In 1999, however for the intervention of Afenifere leaders, he would have picked the ticket forward of Akande, who later emerged candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). He was made deputy governor. However in the direction of the top of the tenure in 2003, disaster broke out they usually went their separate methods. He defected to the PDP. In 2014, he ran on the platform of the PDP however misplaced. He isn’t from Osun West. Though zoning doesn’t favour him, the Christian group in the state is beneficial disposed to his candidature. This explains why he has all of a sudden grow to be a menace to the APC, a reality confirmed by some APC chieftains in the state on Wednesday night time. The Christian group is indignant with the PDP’s candidate for denying his religion due to election.
Adeoti, who’s the candidate of ADP, is from Iwo, in Osun West. He resigned from the federal government and the ruling celebration in protest, following its dealing with of the get together’s main. He’s the instant previous SSG.
The zoning sentiment favours him. However all his life he has by no means labored anyplace. He’s what known as in the native parlance as a “professional politician.” Although a grassroots man, he couldn’t dispense any political patronage whilst SSG, sources near him say. However additionally they claimed that from day one, Aregbesola and his supporters made deliberate effort to “strangulate him politically, “a charge Aregbesola’s men have consistently denied. If the plot to decimate Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political influence in the South-West had worked as planned, he was the choice of the “Abuja South-West APC leaders.” However the final minute choice to dam his sources of funding has not likely helped him.
He’s the candidate of the APC. He was Aregbesola’s Chief of Employees (CoS) since 2010, till he turned the candidate of the celebration a few month in the past. He’s from Iragbiji, Boripe council in Osun Central. As a result of he’s from the central, a zone that held the place for 11 years, the zoning sentiment in the state doesn’t favour him. He’s a cousin to the nationwide chief of APC, Tinubu. However he seems to have additionally “given a good account of himself over the years,” as a seasoned administrator. Aside from the difficulty of zoning, the interior rebellion inside his get together could also be his biggest albatross in the march to victory.
Senator Ademola Adeleke
Adeleke is the PDP’s candidate. Aside from being youthful brother to the previous governor of the state, late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, the youthful Adeleke is seen largely as a political nonstarter. He gained the final Osun-West senatorial by-election purely based mostly on sentiment and owing largely to the political benevolence of his late brother. His alleged certificates forgery saga can also be not serving to his case. Just like the APC the place there’s already inner rebel, the PDP’s inner wrangling can also dim the fortunes of the get together. However like Adeoti, the zoning association favours him. He’s additionally from Osun-West senatorial district.
READ ALSO: Adeleke sat for Might/April 1981 exams – WAEC
Elements, Points that may decide immediately’s end result
Saturday Solar investigations reveal that cash, zoning, faith and Aregesola’s affect are a few of the main elements that might affect the choice of a mean voter in Osun right now.
Cash is an element in the nation’s politics. Each at events’ primaries and through common elections, the candidate or get together that spends the extra typically run away with victory. Though there have been only a few exceptions, the overall degree of starvation in the nation, makes cash a robust issue in figuring out the result of at this time’s election. And often, the vote shopping for is completed in the complete glare of safety brokers. However with the steps taken by INEC thus far, it might be troublesome to purchase votes at polling models, the 2 main events, PDP and APC that seem to have good monetary struggle chest have been deploying similar in alternative ways to win the citizens to their aspect.
As an example, one of many events is already sending a hyperlink to eligible voters to hitch a gaggle. As soon as the hyperlink is clicked, the subsequent message might be “click on the blue link to send your bank details.”
As soon as executed with that, one other message will learn “You’ll receive bank alert 6.am on the election day. Don’t forget to pass this good news to all yours friends and family ….”
Additionally, the state authorities simply engaged 20,000 O’YES youths (Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme) youths, who simply accomplished their coaching train about final week. They have been paid N10, 000 every as coaching allowance. They have been additionally stated to have been employed utilizing their PVCs. This can definitely work in favour of the APC’s candidate.
Like in each state of the nation, Osun too is politically divided into three senatorial districts: Osun West, Central and East. Its first civilian governor, late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, who spent about two years in workplace, hailed from Ede, in Osun West. Subsequent was Chief Bisi Akande, from Ila Orangun in Osun Central. He spent 4 years, however misplaced his re-election in 2003 to Brigadier-Common Olagunsoye Oyinlola (rtd) from Odo-Otin council, additionally in Osun Central. Oyinlola spent seven years.
Cumulatively, Osun Central alone has had 11 years governing the state. Aregbesola is from Ilesa council. By the top of his tenure, Osun East the place he comes from would even have had eight uninterrupted years governing the state. Subsequently, if the zoning sentiment in the state is something to go by, Osun West ought to ordinarily be the subsequent senatorial district to supply Aregbesola’s successor. However with three of the governorship candidates coming from the world, the senatorial district will cut up their votes among the many three of them.
Till 2014, faith has by no means been a robust issue in Osun politics. The State has had a Christian-Christian as Governor and Deputy Governor in the previous. Though there are two Christian candidates in the race, Adeleke and Omisore, the Christian group has pitched its tent with Omisore, simply because the Muslim group has pitched its tent with Oyetola, largely as a result of they accused Adeoti of distancing himself from the group whereas he was in authorities. Conservatively, the Muslim-Christian inhabitants in the state is claimed to be 55-45 in favour of Muslims. As on the time of submitting this report, Oyetola and Omisore are operating neck-to-neck in this regard.
Many residents of Osogbo, the state capital and Ilesa space of the state, the place the governor hails from believed that the outgoing governor, Aregbesola has labored. It will definitely appeal to sympathy for the social gathering and its candidate. However there are those that additionally believed that the infrastructure he constructed have been on the expense of residents’ welfare.
One factor he has completed successfully is breaking the maintain civil servants have on the citizens by enjoying up the unusual merchants and artisans towards them.
In 2014, in spite of the truth that Aregbesola went into that election owing staff arrears of salaries, he polled 394,684 votes, and profitable in 22 of the 30 councils. His closest challenger, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP polled 292,747 votes, profitable in simply eight councils. Will APC repeat the identical feat at the moment?
READ ALSO: Aregbesola solicits vote for Oyetola as APC candidate campaigns in Ayedaade