The political area in Oyo State, barely three months to the 2019 basic election in Nigeria, continues to be very cloudy. Political pundits and analysts are discovering it very troublesome to foretell the path the election will go in any respect ranges, particularly the governorship and presidential polls.
READ ALSO: Oyo 2019: Between Ladoja, Makinde
For presidential election, investigation revealed that regardless of the variety of political events which have produced presidential candidates, the race is between President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who’s the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Get together (PDP).
Nevertheless, the governorship election in Oyo State seems a type of rectangular contest. The race will probably be amongst 4 candidates. They’re: former Deputy Governor of Central Financial institution of Nigeria (CBN) Chief Adebayo Adelabu of APC; an oil magnate, Mr. Oluseyi Makinde, of PDP; former vice chairman, Senate Committee on Nationwide Planning, Financial Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, of the African Democratic Congress (ADC); and a former governor of the state, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, of Motion Democratic Get together (ADP).
It’s being envisaged that candidates of different political events will align with any of the 4 candidates to win the governorship election and doubtless serve within the new political dispensation, peradventure their candidate wins. The present state of affairs within the political area within the state has been that of alignment and realignment by politicians with electoral victory as their goal.
Day by day Solar gathered that the governorship ballot within the state will not be a mattress of roses for the ruling APC, in spite for the truth that the social gathering produced the incumbent governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi.
How the events stand APC, the power, which it leveraged on to win the 2015 governorship ballot within the state may need whittled down because of an implosion that factionalised the celebration into two through the ward, native authorities, and state congresses of the celebration in April and Might 2018. The 2 teams are these which might be loyal to Governor Abiola Ajimobi, often known as SENACO, which is acronym for Senator Ajimobi Marketing campaign Organisation, and coalition of these which might be towards him, christened the APC Unity Discussion board.
The APC Unity Discussion board was made up of various teams inside the social gathering. One of many teams is LAMIST, which stood for people who have been within the APC because it was based as Motion Congress (AC) and when it was Motion Congress of Nigeria (ACN). They have been loyal to a former governor of the state, late Alhaji Lam Adesina, who administered the state from 1999 to 2003. He was the chief of ACN that produced Ajimobi as governor in 2011. Members of SENACO are people who adopted Governor Abiola Ajimobi from All Nigerian Peoples Get together (ANPP) to ACN previous to the 2011 common elections.
Ajimobi, who was within the senate from 2003 to 2007 on the platform of Alliance for Democracy (AD), had contested the governorship ballot within the state on the platform of ANPP in 2007. However he misplaced to Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, who ruled the state from 2007 to 2011 on the platform of PDP. Alao-Akala, nevertheless, misplaced whilst an incumbent, to Ajimobi in 2011.
Earlier than the approaching of Ajimobi to ACN, it was stated that folks have been wanting as much as Senator Olufemi Lanlehin to run for the governorship on the ticket of ACN. However the reputation of Ajimobi based mostly on his antecedents within the political area, notably within the state in all probability made him a most popular candidate for the plum job. However Lanlehin, was then compensated with the senatorial ticket in 2011 and he gained the competition.
Nevertheless, the implosion that rocked the social gathering six months in the past, additionally has the minister of Communications, Alhaji Adebayo Shittu, who was the chief of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in Oyo State earlier than it dissolved into APC forward of 2015 basic elections, main people who adopted him into the APC Unity Discussion board. People who shaped the APC Unity Discussion board additionally included a former Speaker of Oyo State Home of Meeting, Senator Monsurat Sunmonu, who at present represents Oyo Central within the higher chambers of the nationwide meeting; former Chief of Employees to Governor Ajimobi, Professor Adeolu Akande; son of Alhaji Lam Adesina, Dapo Lam-Adesina, who served as Commissioner for Youth and Sports activities through the first time period of Ajimobi and at present represent- ing Ibadan North-East/South-East Federal constituency within the Home of Representatives; and ex-caretaker chairman of Ibadan North West native authorities, Dr. Wasiu Olatubosun.
The group loyal to Ajimobi held its state congress at Lekan Salami Sports activities Complicated, Adamasingba, Ibadan, and the Unity Discussion board additionally held a parallel state congress at Obafemi Awolowo Stadium, Oke-Ado, Ibadan. Every of the teams elected its personal state government council. The Unity Discussion board had accused the loyalists of Ajimobi of not paying for nomination varieties and the latter dismissed the allegation as a tissue of lie. The matter couldn’t be resolved till the nationwide management of the get together swore in Chief Akin Oke as chairman of the get together in Oyo State in Abuja.
Oke was returned unopposed as chairman at a factional congress held at Adamasingba Stadium. Oke got here again house and after some weeks additionally swore in members of the State Government Council (SEC) that emerged at Adamasingba Stadium. He additionally arrange a committee to reconcile the aggrieved members of the social gathering.
The non-recognition of the APC Unity Discussion board by the nationwide management of the celebration, Every day Solar gathered, made quite a few individuals within the discussion board to dump APC for ADC within the state. People who went to ADC embrace Senator Sunmonu, Dapo Lam-Adesina, Dr. Olatubosun.
Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala additionally left APC when it was apparent that he wouldn’t get the governorship ticket of the get together. He went to ADP to actualise his dream. Prof. Adeolu Akande additionally left APC for ADP.
Minister of Communications, Alhaji Adebayo Shittu, continues to be in APC, however he seems sad with the get together. Although he was among the many eight aspirants that obtained the social gathering’s governorship type of N22.5 million every, he was screened out by Nationwide Working Committee (NWC) on the grounds that he didn’t take part within the one-year obligatory Nationwide Youth Service Corps (NYSC) scheme.
Previous to the Adelabu’s emergence as APC candidate, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala and former Commissioner for Well being within the state, Dr. Azeez Adeduntan introduced their withdrawal from the competition, leaving 5 aspirants. Nevertheless, 4 different aspirants, a Senior Associate in KPMG Skilled Providers in Nigeria, Olasunkanmi Tegbe; Director, Built-in Power Distribution and Advertising Restricted, Dr. Olusola Ayandele; Commissioner for Well being, Dr. Babalola Owolabi; and a authorized luminary, Chief Adeniyi Akintola (SAN) all stepped down for Adelabu. However the main election nonetheless held.
Political observers see Shittu’s continued keep in APC as a mark of loyalty to President Buhari and based mostly on his ministerial place. However that Ajimobi and the minister have by no means been on the identical web page politically.
However some members of APC Unity Discussion board that defected to ADC and ADP stated they haven’t completely left APC as a result of they might work for President Buhari’s second time period re-election bid, however would work towards Governor Ajimobi, who has picked the APC senatorial ticket for Oyo South and the APC within the state.
Although APC made reconciliatory strikes to dealer peace in order that its aggrieved members wouldn’t defect, it didn’t work. The reconciliation appeared to be working till a impasse was reached in the course of the primaries carried out by the celebration.
However the get together was capable of efficiently handle greater than 40 aspirants jostling to turn into its governorship candidate for subsequent yr’s election. This was stated to have prevented mass defection from the celebration to different events. However majority of the aspirants that misplaced at primaries usually are not proud of the get together they usually may go towards the victory of the celebration from inside, until proactive steps are taken to placate them, Day by day Solar’s investigations additional revealed.
Till very just lately, the PDP in Oyo State was factionalised into two, with one supporting a former governor of the state, Rashidi Ladoja, and the opposite one supporting an oil magnate, the celebration’s governorship candidate, Makinde.
The disaster stemmed from two state congresses held within the state in November 2017. Ladoja’s faction held its congress at Watershed Occasion Centre, Previous Ife, Street, whereas Makinde’s faction additionally held a parallel congress at Baptist Secondary Faculty, Oke-Ado, Ibadan.
The PDP chieftains behind Makinde embrace a former Majority Chief, Home of Representatives, Mrs. Mulikat Akande-Adeola and former deputy chief whip within the seventh senate, Senator Hosea Agboola. Makinde’s group reportedly moved for a parallel congress once they found that the unity listing of people who would type the State Government Council (SEC) of the get together would favour Ladoja’s group alone.
The PDP structure, in response to members of Makinde’s group, permits for a parallel congress and anyplace a parallel congress is held, the Nationwide Working Committee (NWC) of the get together will harmonise the 2 government councils for peace to reign. It’s the political gimmick that’s unknown to many card-carrying members of the social gathering, besides people who have actually studied the social gathering’s structure, they declare.
When the harmonisation was ultimately accomplished by the NWC of PDP, Ladoja, who stated the validly elected SEC emerged on the congress carried out by a former governor of Cross River State, Liyel Imoke, at Watershed Occasion Centre, requested the NWC to reverse the harmonisation. However the NWC didn’t do the reversal, which made Ladoja to offer ultimatum that he would go away the get together if nothing was achieved on the difficulty. The harmonised SEC was not reversed, until Ladoja, who alleged that the motion of the management of PDP was unfair to him by allegedly imposing Makinde on him, left the celebration for ADC.
Makinde fought for the governorship ticket of PDP with Senator Ayoade Adeseun from Oyo Central senatorial district. In the harmonised government, the camp of Ladoja received 14 slots, and Seyi Makinde’s camp received 12 slots. Makinde had run for governorship on the platform of Social Democratic Get together (SDP) in 2015. He together with Alao-Akala had sought to contest the ballot on PDP platform in 2015, however dumped the celebration when the ticket was given to the previous senate chief, Teslim Folarin, who’s now the APC candidate for Oyo Central Senatorial district. Makinde left for SDP and Alao-Akala additionally left for Labour Get together (LP). Makinde returned to PDP in 2017 and Alao-Akala left for APC with Folarin, earlier than Alao-Akala defected to ADP lately.
ADC seems to have develop into a lovely bride within the state. It has acquired Senator Ladoja from PDP, Senator Lanlehin from PDP, and Senator Monsurat Sunmonu from APC. Ladoja, who had moved his political construction from Accord to PDP, additional moved the construction to ADC lately.
The listing of ADC members additionally embrace two former deputy governors of the state, Alhaji Hameed Gbadamosi, and Amassador Taofeek Arapaja, who served through the administrations of Chief Kolapo Ishola, and Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, respectively. Arapaja was a former Nigerian Ambassador to Jordan. 4 former secretaries to the state authorities, Chief Michael Koleoso; Alhaji Busari Adebisi, Chief Olayiwola Olakojo, Chief Sarafadeen Alli and Chief Ayodele Adigun are additionally members of ADC.
Senator Gbenga Babalola from Oyo North senatorial district; former council chairmen, Prince Yemi Aderibigbe, and Gbenga Adewusi; and an astute politician, Alhaji Yinka Olona, are additionally in ADC.
However the mud of a current disaster that rocked the social gathering is but to completely settle. The interior wrangling shook the get together to its basis. The disaster bordered on the governorship ticket of the get together. The get together had 13 governorship aspirants and ultimately, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin was stated to have emerged the consensus candidate.
However the course of was challenged by 12 different aspirants, who went to courtroom and petitioned the Nationwide Working Committee (NWC) of the get together in Abuja. The committee intervened and requested all of the aspirants to satisfy and current considered one of them. The 13 aspirants met and elected former Commissioner for Schooling within the state, Dr. Nureni Adeniran. However the NWC ultimately affirmed the candidature of Lanlehin, saying Adeniran didn’t present proof of acquiring the celebration’s nomination type and monetary capability to fund the electioneering.
The affirmation of Lanlehin, Every day Solar gathered, might cease Senator Ladoja from dumping ADC for an additional celebration. The aspirants that misplaced out had accused him of being the mastermind of the implosion inside ADC within the state. It was gathered that Lanlehin was introduced to the get together by Ladoja.
The NWC of ADC, nevertheless, defined that Lanlehin was affirmed as candidate as a result of investigations carried out by it confirmed that Lanlehin is the one one in the intervening time that would win the 2019 governorship ballot for the celebration. It’s believed in numerous quarters that Lanlehin nonetheless has his loyalists in APC and PDP, which if correctly harnessed, might work in his favour within the construct as much as the governorship election, it was additional learnt.
However some astute supporters of Senator Ladoja didn’t comply with him to ADC. They embrace a former member of Home of Representatives, Busari Olayemi, and Ladilu of Oyo, and former member, Nigeria Deposit Insurance coverage Board (NDIC), Chief Bisi Ilaka, who’s the PDP candidate for Oyo central senatorial district.
In response to sources, a few of these recognized supporters of Ladoja selected to remain again in PDP in order to understand their numerous political aspirations, whereas others elected to stick with the PDP due to political variations they’ve with the one time nationwide chief of Accord Get together.
Ilaka would have accomplished a fantastic disservice to his ambition if he selected to defect to the ADC. It’s a well-known incontrovertible fact that Senator Sunmonu, the incumbent senator representing Oyo central, whom Ilaka narrowly misplaced to within the 2015 election, is among the leaders of the ADC and seeks to return to the senate, in 2019.
Elements that may form the governorship contest
Zoning, Oyo State has 5 political zones. They’re: Ibadan, with 11 councils, Oyo with 4 councils, Ogbomoso with 5 councils, Ibarapa with three councils, and Oke-Ogun with 10 councils.
Out there data present that Ibadan towers above different zones when it comes to inhabitants and voting power. It’s unlikely that Ibadan elders won’t help certainly one of their very own. By the point the incumbent governor, Abiola Ajimobi, completes his second time period in workplace on Might 29, 2019; will probably be precisely 16 years that natives of Ibadan zone ruled the state out of the 20 years of democratic governance.
Ibadan zone alone has produced three of the 4 governors within the state. The trio are Lam Adesina from 1999 to 2003, Rashidi Ladoja from 2003 to 2007 and Abiola Ajimobi from 2011 to 2019. Adebayo Alao-Akala, who was governor from 2007 to 2011, hails from Ogbomoso zone, and didn’t win the ballot with out the lively help of a outstanding Ibadan native, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, the late strongman of Ibadan politics.
Through the 2015 ballot, Ibadan zone recorded 47 % of the entire votes, which stood at 906,870, forged for the 5 prime governorship candidates. Oke-Ogun adopted with 23 %, Ogbomoso had 15 %, Oyo had 9 % and Ibarapa had six %.
Additionally in 2011, Ibadan recorded 51 % of the whole votes forged, which stood at 1,083,757, with Oke-Ogun having 20 %, Ogbomoso having 14 %, Oyo having 9.7 %, and Ibarapa having 5.three %.
As it’s now, the candidates of APC, Adebayo Adelabu, hails from Ibadan, and he’s a grandson of a fierce pre-independence politician, Alhaji Adegoke Adelabu, fondly referred to as ‘Penkelemesi’. Penkelemesi is the corrupt type of ‘peculiar mess’ by conventional drummers when Alhaji Adelabu who died in 1958, described a specific state of affairs as that of a “peculiar mess.”
In the identical vein, Oluseyi Makinde and Olufemi Lanlehin, of PDP and ADC respectively are additionally natives of Ibadan. It is just Alao-Akala that hails from Ogbomoso.
Analysts say that Alao-Akala will decide the voting sample within the 5 native authorities areas in Ogbomoso, whereas all of the candidates will share the votes from the 11 native governments in Ibadan. Additionally, the physique language of probably the most outstanding native of Oyo, it was stated, will decide the voting sample within the 4 councils in Oyo city. The 4 main political events should work to win votes within the 10 councils in Oke-Ogun, in addition to the three councils in Ibarapa division. The zone that nevertheless produces the operating mate of every of the candidate will even go a great distance in figuring out the voting patterns for the governorship ballot.
Kingmakers, the winner of governorship ballot in 1999 was decided by the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere. It was determined in 2003 and 2007 by Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu and in 2011 by Chief Michael Koleosho and Alhaji Lam Adesina. In 2015, the sitting governor gained re-election.
However in 2019, it appears solely time will inform, who will decide the winner. That is so as a result of new godfathers have been rising from totally different political events.
A cursory take a look at the political area within the state present that the political consciousness, consciousness and schooling of citizens have elevated they usually might vote based on their convictions about political events and the candidates, regardless of what perceived godfathers will say.